Sunday, November 8, 2015

What people of Bihar actually wanted - comparison Bihar 2010 vs Bihar 2015

Focus Question: What people of Bihar actually wanted - comparison Bihar 2010 vs Bihar 2015?

I am not giving any inferences in this article. I am just presenting stats, and it would be nice if the readers attempt to draw at least 2 conclusions related to the above focus question on their own.


Bihar election results 2010 - vote share/ percentage: *



Bihar election results 2015 - vote share/ percentage:




*Focus on the vote share column in the first figure.

Now, to summarise and compare the performances in both of these elections, refer below (take care of the fact about how many seats did each party contest in 2010 and 2015) :


Vote Share % in 

2010
2015
BJP
16.5
24.4
JDU
22.6
16.8
RJD
18.8
18.4
INC
8.4
9.4


Performances of the alliances:


Vote Share % in 2015
BJP+
35.9
JDU/RJD+
43.1

Now imagine what would have happened if JDU and RJD would have not been together - How significantly they would have deteriorated each others'  performances.

Other useful data:
Total Voters in Bihar (243 seats)
Average number (U) of voters in each assembly (66826658÷243)
66826658
275007
....


2015 (p)
No. of seats contested in 2015 (N)
Approximate no. of voters in all the contested assemblies (N*U)
Normalised Strike rate of vote share = 1000000*p/(N*U)
BJP
24.4
159
43726113
0.56
JDU

16.8
101
27775707
0.60
RJD

18.4
101
27775707
0.66
INC

9.4
41
11275287
0.83

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